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Golden Globe Predictions 2020 – Who Will Win Golden Globe Awards This Year?
Ah, the Golden Globes: the drunk aunt of awards shows. Historically bonkers, we’ve already broken down how incredibly misguided some of these nominations are, but once you get past the gigantic omission of a series like When They See Us, this list is actually kind of fun. You love chaos! What other awards show is going to shower shows like The Politician with nominations? Honestly, we’re surprised that Cats didn’t manage to lock in some nominations here. That’s just the kind of energy you’re signing up for with the Globes.
But every year, we take a shot in the dark and try to determine who is going to take home awards. The good thing about this show in particular is that after throwing it out during nomination time, the Globes tend to follow the rule book when handing out awards. But that doesn’t bar an occasional upset, so let’s play the game. Let’s try and predict what’s to come (and where they’ll get it wrong).
Best Picture, Drama
1917The IrishmanJokerMarriage StoryThe Two Popes
Right off the bat, I’m going to contradict myself. This is going to go to Joker because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is coo coo for Cocoa Puffs. The obvious frontrunners here are The Irishman and Marriage Story, but man… Joker is shiny. And if you can bank on any awards show leaning toward the shiny, it’s the Globes. In a year where this should be a Netflix lock, the Globes could absolutely turn expectations on its head. In a more reasonable guess, the stone cold backup here is The Irishman.
Best Actor, Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v FerrariAntonio Banderas, Pain and GloryAdam Driver, Marriage StoryJoaquin Phoenix, JokerJonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
My gut says Joaquin Phoenix for (see above), but I also think Driver could pull out the win. His affecting turn in Marriage Story has been buzzy for a while, just like Driver’s stardom. The HFPA likes a popular candidate, and it’s hard to imagine anyone more squarely at the crux of potential and prestige right now than Adam Driver. Still… Joker is the kind of stuff this crowd salivates over.
Best Actress, Drama
Cynthia Erivo, HarrietScarlett Johansson, Marriage StorySaoirse Ronan, Little WomenCharlize Theron, BombshellRenée Zellweger, Judy
First off, curious decision to put Zellweger in the Drama category when her movie is laden with music, but whatever. The HFPA loves a transformation, and while that could spell a big win for Theron, Zellweger’s turn as Judy Garland is the kind of award-show bait that people love to root for. If Driver is the promising young leading man, Zellweger represents a career worthy of paying attention to.
Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
Dolemite Is My NameJojo RabbitKnives OutOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodRocketman
A Tarantino flick hasn’t won Best Picture… ever. Crazy, right? With this line up, it seems almost positively poised to lock in the award this year, and deservedly so. There’s just not another pick in the mix that can compete.
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Daniel Craig, Knives OutRoman Griffin Davis, Jojo RabbitLeonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodTaron Egerton, RocketmanEddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
This is wishful thinking, but there’s always one performance that manages to live on even though it came out well outside of the established “awards show window.” Coming out in the Spring, Egerton’s turn as Elton John is a giant step forward for the actor. Yes, DiCaprio and Murphy are much safer bets, but if Rami Malek can get credit for his run as Freddie Mercury, then I’m willing to put money on Egerton’s flashy performance.
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Ana De Armas, Knives OutAwkwafina, The FarewellCate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, BernadetteBeanie Feldstein, BooksmartEmma Thompson, Late Night
Shame on the Globes if this doesn’t go to Awkwafina. That’s all I have to say about that.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the NeighborhoodAnthony Hopkins, The Two PopesAl Pacino, The IrishmanJoe Pesci, The IrishmanBrad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Strange year when one of the most contested categories is Supporting Actor! While personal preference makes me think this could be Pitt’s year to bust the award show bracket open, how do you compete with the likes of Pacino and Pesci playing roles they do best? Unless they split the vote, best guess is that Pesci pulls out a very cool, late in the career win. Fingers crossed for Brad Pitt though. He’s earned it.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard JewellAnnette Bening, The ReportLaura Dern, Marriage StoryJennifer Lopez, HustlersMargot Robbie, Bombshell
Another strange category, but it also feels definitive. Getting that well-deserved Oscar may be difficult for Jennifer Lopez, but a Golden Globe feels incredibly doable. It would also be a huge get for her campaign. No one in this category is working harder right now than Lopez, and if there’s any justice in the world, this will be a lock for her.
Bong Joon-ho, ParasiteSam Mendes, 1917Todd Phillips, JokerMartin Scorsese, The IrishmanQuentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This category feels impossibly split, and it feels like it may come down to a few factors. If The Irishman pulls out a Best Picture win (which it absolutely could), then it feels all the more likely that the Best Director award will (also deservedly) go to Bong Joon-ho. Unable to be nominated for Best Picture because of its placement in foreign film (there’s a whole post to be written on that, but… yeah), leaving Joon-ho unawarded feels like a bleak oversight from the Globes. If the HFPA fails to do the right thing, then it’s hard to imagine this going to anyone else but Scorsese.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Farewell, U.S.A.Les Misérables, FrancePain and Glory, SpainParasite, South KoreaPortrait of a Lady on Fire, France
Another game of what-ifs-and-what-have-yous, this is almost certainly going to go to Parasite, but a crazy dark horse could emerge in Lulu Wang’s The Farewell. With both of these unable to be nominated in the Best Picture category, this is a bloodbath of a category this year. But in the struggle between a South Korean thriller and a heartfelt meditation on Chinese and American culture, Parasite feels like the victor.
Best TV Drama
Big Little Lies (HBO)The Crown (Netflix)Killing Eve (BBC America)The Morning Show (Apple TV+)Succession (HBO)
The TV arena is nuts this year, so chug a bottle of wine and throw a dart at the wall, and your guess is about as valid as anyone’s. The HFPA loves star power, so with that in mind, it feels likely that the awards will tip a hat to The Morning Show, but if the awards move in the direction of popular opinion, Succession could pull off a solid win.
Best Actor, TV Drama
Brian Cox, SuccessionKit Harington, Game of ThronesRami Malek, Mr. RobotTobias Menzies, The CrownBilly Porter, Pose
The obvious choice is Porter. He’s a red carpet darling, and his work on Pose has been as entertaining as it has been powerful, and the HFPA loves Malek. But with Succession’s massive success this year, this feels like the perfect time for Brian Cox to nab the trophy.
Best Actress, TV Drama
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning ShowOlivia Colman, The CrownJodie Comer, Killing EveNicole Kidman, Big Little LiesReese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Wow. Imagine a world where Reese Witherspoon is the weak link in the category. Comer deserves the win, but she doesn’t feel like the kind of victor the HFPA likes to reward. Kidman got her due in Big Little Lies last year, so that’s moot. It really will come down to Aniston and Colman, and while Colman probably deserves it, we have all been prepped to root for Aniston. For that, she’ll take the crown (pun intended).
Best TV Musical or Comedy
Barry (HBO)Fleabag (Amazon)The Kominksy Method (Netflix)The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)The Politician (Netflix)
This literally has to be Fleabag.
Best Actor, TV Musical or Comedy
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky MethodBill Hader, BarryBen Platt, The PoliticianPaul Rudd, Living With YourselfRamy Youssef, Ramy
This is proof of how bizarre TV has gotten this year. While Bill Hader is the obvious and deserving choice, I’m also coming down from that bottle of wine we talked about earlier, so let’s just take a big swing and say this is going to Ben Platt. That acceptance speech is going to be so earnest.
Best Actress, TV Musical or Comedy
Christina Applegate, Dead to MeRachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselKirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central FloridaNatasha Lyonne, Russian DollPhoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
The fanfare for Waller-Bridge has been through the roof in the past year, and considering that this is her last foray into Fleabag’s world, it feels like this is the perfect time to give her a Globe for the performance, even if she locks one in for the series itself.
Best TV Miniseries/Movie
Catch-22 (Hulu)Chernobyl (HBO)Fosse/Verdon (FX)The Loudest Voice (Showtime)Unbelievable (Netflix)
Netflix’s powerful miniseries is getting its first taste of the awards circuit, and if the Globes want to set a precedent and attempt to make up for the egregious oversight of When They See Us, this would be their opportunity to do so. With that said, HBO’s Chernobyl has the potential to upset… and yeah, that’s a double entendre.
Best Actor, TV Miniseries/Movie
Christopher Abbott, Catch-22Sacha Baron Cohen, The SpyRussell Crowe, The Loudest VoiceJared Harris, ChernobylSam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
An underwhelming category lends itself to a… fine winner. Jared Harris will win for Chernobyl and it won’t be underwhelming or overwhelming. It’ll just be whelming.
Best Actress, TV Miniseries/Movie
Kaitlyn Dever, UnbelievableJoey King, The ActHelen Mirren, Catherine the GreatMerritt Wever, UnbelievableMichelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
Now this is a category, which is unfortunate because the winner is almost certainly going to be the least exciting of the bunch. Williams gave a wonderful performance as Gwen Verdon, but the young talent in this category is insane, and the turn Merritt Wever had in Unbelievable is surely going to dominate at the Emmys.
Best Supporting Actor, TV
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky MethodKieran Culkin, SuccessionAndrew Scott, FleabagStellan Skarsgård, ChernobylHenry Winkler, Barry
While this could easily go to Winkler, Hot Priest lived in 2019 and thus Hot Priest gets the trophy. Kudos to Andrew Scott.
Best Supporting Actress, TV
Patricia Arquette, The ActHelena Bonham Carter, The CrownToni Collette, UnbelievableMeryl Streep, Big Little LiesEmily Watson, Chernobyl
So help me GOD if the Globes does what I think it’s going to do… but that Meryl scream is HFPA candy. Shame on them for potentially overlooking Bonham Carter’s performance as Princess Margaret.
Justin Kirkland is a writer for Esquire, where he focuses on entertainment, television, and pop culture.